Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
